A Human-Health Risk Assessment for West Nile Virus and Insecticides Used in Mosquito Management

West Nile virus (WNV) has been a major public health concern in North America since 1999, when the first outbreak in the Western Hemisphere occurred in New York City. As a result of this ongoing disease outbreak, management of mosquitoes that vector WNV throughout the United States and Canada has necessitated using insecticides in areas where they traditionally have not been used or have been used less frequently. This has resulted in concerns by the public about the risks from insecticide use. The objective of this study was to use reasonable worst-case risk assessment methodologies to evaluate human-health risks for WNV and the insecticides most commonly used to control adult mosquitoes. We evaluated documented health effects from WNV infection and determined potential population risks based on reported frequencies. We determined potential acute (1-day) and subchronic (90-day) multiroute residential exposures from each insecticide for several human subgroups during a WNV disease outbreak scenario. We then compared potential insecticide exposures to toxicologic and regulatory effect levels. Risk quotients (RQs, the ratio of exposure to toxicologic effect) were < 1.0 for all subgroups. Acute RQs ranged from 0.0004 to 0.4726, and subchronic RQs ranged from 0.00014 to 0.2074. Results from our risk assessment and the current weight of scientific evidence indicate that human-health risks from residential exposure to mosquito insecticides are low and are not likely to exceed levels of concern. Further, our results indicate that, based on human-health criteria, the risks from WNV exceed the risks from exposure to mosquito insecticides

A Hedged Monte Carlo Approach to Real Option Pricing

In this work we are concerned with valuing optionalities associated to invest or to delay investment in a project when the available information provided to the manager comes from simulated data of cash flows under historical (or subjective) measure in a possibly incomplete market. Our approach is suitable also to incorporating subjective views from management or market experts and to stochastic investment costs. It is based on the Hedged Monte Carlo strategy proposed by Potters et al (2001) where options are priced simultaneously with the determination of the corresponding hedging. The approach is particularly well-suited to the evaluation of commodity related projects whereby the availability of pricing formulae is very rare, the scenario simulations are usually available only in the historical measure, and the cash flows can be highly nonlinear functions of the prices.Comment: 25 pages, 14 figure

Polymorphisms in the gene regions of the adaptor complex LAMTOR2/LAMTOR3 and their association with breast cancer risk.

Background: The late endosomal LAMTOR complex serves as a convergence point for both the RAF/MEK/ERK and the PI3K/AKT/mTOR pathways. Interestingly, both of these signalling cascades play a significant role in the aetiology of breast cancer. Our aim was to address the possible role of genetic polymorphisms in LAMTOR2 and LAMTOR3 as genetic risk factors for breast cancer. Methodology/Results: We sequenced the exons and exon-intron boundaries of LAMTOR2 (p14) and LAMTOR3 (MP1) in 50 prospectively collected pairs of cancerous tissue and blood samples from breast cancer patients and compared their genetic variability. We found one single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in LAMTOR2 (rs7541) and two SNPs in LAMTOR3 (rs2298735 and rs148972953) in both tumour and blood samples, but no somatic mutations in cancerous tissues. In addition, we genotyped all three SNPs in 296 samples from the Risk Prediction of Breast Cancer Metastasis Study and found evidence of a genetic association between rs148972953 and oestrogen (ER) and progesterone receptor negative status (PR) (ER: OR = 3.60 (1.15-11.28); PR: OR = 4.27 (1.43-12.72)). However, when we additionally genotyped rs148972953 in the MARIE study including 2,715 breast cancer cases and 5,216 controls, we observed neither a difference in genotype frequencies between patients and controls nor was the SNP associated with ER or PR. Finally, all three SNPs were equally frequent in breast cancer samples and female participants (n = 640) of the population-based SAPHIR Study. Conclusions: The identified polymorphisms in LAMTOR2 and LAMTOR3 do not seem to play a relevant role in breast cancer. Our work does not exclude a role of other not yet identified SNPs or that the here annotated polymorphism may in fact play a relevant role in other diseases. Our results underscore the importance of replication in association studies

Efficient pricing of ratchet equity-indexed annuities in a variance-gamma economy

In this paper we propose a new method for approximating the price of arithmetic Asian options in a Variance-Gamma (VG) economy, which is then applied to the problem of pricing equityindexed annuity contracts. The proposed procedure is an extension to the case of a VG-based model of the moment-matching method developed by Turnbull and Wakeman and Levy for the pricing of this class of path-dependent options in the traditional Black-Scholes setting. The accuracy of the approximation is analyzed against RQMC estimates for the case of ratchet equityindexed annuities with index averaging

Biodiversity of Borrelia burgdorferi Strains in Tissues of Lyme Disease Patients

Plant and animal biodiversity are essential to ecosystem health and can provide benefits to humans ranging from aesthetics to maintaining air quality. Although the importance of biodiversity to ecology and conservation biology is obvious, such measures have not been applied to strains of an invasive bacterium found in human tissues during infection. In this study, we compared the strain biodiversity of Borrelia burgdorferi found in tick populations with that found in skin, blood, synovial fluid or cerebrospinal fluid of Lyme disease patients. The biodiversity of B. burgdorferi strains is significantly greater in tick populations than in the skin of patients with erythema migrans. In turn, strains from skin are significantly more diverse than strains at any of the disseminated sites. The cerebrospinal fluid of patients with neurologic Lyme disease harbored the least pathogen biodiversity. These results suggest that human tissues act as niches that can allow entry to or maintain only a subset of the total pathogen population. These data help to explain prior clinical observations on the natural history of B. burgdorferi infection and raise several questions that may help to direct future research to better understand the pathogenesis of this infection

Development of a Flow-Trough Microarray based Reverse Transcriptase Multiplex Ligation-Dependent Probe Amplification Assay for the Detection of European Bunyaviruses

It is suspected that apart from tick-borne encephalitis virus several additional European Arboviruses such as the sandfly borne Toscana virus, sandfly fever Sicilian virus and sandfly fever Naples virus, mosquito-borne Tahyna virus, Inkoo virus, Batai virus and tick-borne Uukuniemi virus cause aseptic meningo-encephalitis or febrile disease in Europe. Currently, the microarray technology is developing rapidly and there are many efforts to apply it to infectious diseases diagnostics. In order to arrive at an assay system useful for high throughput analysis of samples from aseptic meningo-encephalitis cases the authors developed a combined multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification and flow-through microarray assay for the detection of European Bunyaviruses. These results show that this combined assay indeed is highly sensitive, and specific for the accurate detection of multiple viruses

Alternative approach to the optimality of the threshold strategy for spectrally negative Levy processes

Consider the optimal dividend problem for an insurance company whose uncontrolled surplus precess evolves as a spectrally negative Levy process. We assume that dividends are paid to the shareholders according to admissible strategies whose dividend rate is bounded by a constant. The objective is to find a dividend policy so as to maximize the expected discounted value of dividends which are paid to the shareholders until the company is ruined. Kyprianou, Loeffen and Perez [28] have shown that a refraction strategy (also called threshold strategy) forms an optimal strategy under the condition that the Levy measure has a completely monotone density. In this paper, we propose an alternative approach to this optimal problem.Comment: 16 page

Landscape of HER2-low metastatic breast cancer (MBC): results from the Austrian AGMT_MBC-Registry

BACKGROUND: About 50% of all primary breast cancers show a low-level expression of HER2 (HER2-low), defined as immunohistochemically 1+ or 2+ and lack of HER2 gene amplification measured by in situ hybridization. This low HER2 expression is a promising new target for antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) currently under investigation. Until now, little is known about the frequency and the prognostic value of low HER2-expression in metastatic breast cancer (MBC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: The MBC-Registry of the Austrian Study Group of Medical Tumor Therapy (AGMT) is a multicenter nationwide ongoing registry for MBC patients in Austria. Unadjusted, univariate survival probabilities of progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method and compared by the log-rank test. Multivariable adjusted hazard ratios were estimated by Cox regression models. In this analysis, only patients with known HER2 status and available survival data were included. RESULTS: As of 11/15/2020, 1,973 patients were included in the AGMT-MBC-Registry. Out of 1,729 evaluable patients, 351 (20.3%) were HER2-positive, 608 (35.2%) were HER2-low and 770 (44.5%) were completely HER2-negative (HER2-0). Low HER2-expression was markedly more frequent in the hormone-receptor(HR)+ subgroup compared to the triple-negative subgroup (40% vs. 23%). In multivariable analysis, low HER2 expression did not significantly influence OS neither in the HR+ (HR 0.89; 95% CI 0.74-1.05; P = 0.171) nor in the triple-negative subgroup (HR 0.92; 95% CI 0.68-1.25; P = 0.585), when compared to completely HER2-negative disease. Similar results were observed when HER2 IHC 2+ patients were compared to IHC 1+ or 0 patients. CONCLUSION: Low-HER2 expression did not have any impact on prognosis of metastatic breast cancer in this real-world population